The Truth About Taxing, Spending, and Stealing from the Future

For all the rhetoric about what party "will raise taxes" and which will cut them, which is dubbed "tax and spend," and which casts that aspersion, I thought it important to take a look at the real numbers. My source is the Government Printing Office, and the raw data is available for download from them. The numbers are also available from the White House in this document. For years 2004 - 2009, I used the White House data. 2008 is estimated, and this data was generated prior to the bailout. The truth will be far worse.

So, looking back to 1940, here are the facts. I will list all numbers in 2000 dollars, to remove the distorting effect of inflation:
Size of Federal Government (spending):


What does this table say?
The government spent 38.5% less in Truman's last year than in Roosevelt/Truman's last year.
The government spent 0.4% less in Eisenhower's last year than in Truman's last year.
Kennedy/Johnson 18.4% more (1 term)
Johnson 35.8% more (1 term)
Nixon/Ford 20.6% more (1.3% and 19.1% in 1st and 2nd term, respectively)
Carter 15.0% more (1 term)
Reagan 23.1% more (10.6% and 11.3% in 1st and 2nd term, respectively)
Bush 12.3% more (1 term)
Clinton 10.2% more (3.0% and 6.9% in 1st and 2nd term, respectively)
Bush "W" 32.2% more (16.4% and 13.6% in 1st and 2nd term, respectively)

So... in the last 40 years, the 3 presidents having the largest increases in government, in order:
George W. Bush (32.2%)
Ronald Reagan (23.1%)
Richard Nixon (20.6%)

and the 3 presidents having the smallest increases in government, in order:
Bill Clinton (10.2%)
George H.W. Bush (12.3%)
Jimmy Carter (15.0%)

If we count each four year term as a separate presidency:
in the last 40 years, the 5 presidents terms having the largest increases in government, in order:
Richard Nixon (2nd term 19.1%)
George W. Bush (1st term 16.4%)
Jimmy Carter (15.0%)
George W. Bush (2nd term 13.6%)
George H.W. Bush (12.3%)

and the 5 presidents terms having the smallest increases in government, in order:
Richard Nixon (1st term 1.3%)
Bill Clinton (1st term 3.0%)
Bill Clinton (2nd term 6.9%)
Ronald Reagan (1st term 10.6%)
Ronald Reagan (2nd term 11.3%)

If you look at actual federal budget, the winner for increasing the size of government the fastest? Ronald Reagan. Carter's last budget was $591 Billion. Reagan's last budget was $1,064 Billion. Almost double.

Ronald Reagan came into office in large part due to his lambasting President Carter's deficits, which amounted to $74 Billion in his last year. Reagan's last year's deficit was $155 Billion. More than double.

Which brings me to taxation.
In the last 40 years, the 3 presidents having the largest increases in taxes collected, in order:
Bill Clinton (42.1%)
Richard Nixon (20.6%)
Ronald Reagan (21.4%)

and the 3 presidents having the smallest increases in taxes collected, in order:
George W. Bush (10.0%)
George H.W. Bush (11.9%)
Jimmy Carter (17.7%)

If we count each four year term as a separate presidency:
in the last 40 years, the 5 presidents terms having the largest increases in taxes collected, in order:
Bill Clinton (2nd term 27.3%)
Jimmy Carter (17.7%)
Richard Nixon (16.0%)
George W. Bush (13.7%)
Ronald Reagan (12.9%)

and the 5 presidents terms having the smallest increases in taxes collected, in order:
George W. Bush (-3.3%)
Richard Nixon (2nd term 4.7%)
Ronald Reagan (1st term 4.9%)
Bill Clinton (1st term 11.7%)
Ronald Reagan (2nd term 12.9%)

And finally ...

How do you reconcile these numbers? How is it that Republicans can profess to cut taxes, when they are responsible for increasing spending the most?

Borrowing. Lots of it.
Carter increased the national debt by 40.8% ($288 billion)
Reagan increased the national debt 188.4% ($1,873 billion)
Bush increased the national debt 51.7% ($1,484 billion in 4 years)
Clinton increased the national debt 32.6% ($1,418 billion)
And ... our current president has increased the national debt 82.5% ... $4,761 billion and counting!

Yes, our current president has increased the national debt more than all presidents from Washington to George H.W. Bush ... combined!

Again, to listen to the rhetoric, I don't think one would come away understanding that:
- The largest increases in government have come under "W" and Reagan;
- The smallest increases in government were under Nixon and Clinton;
- President Reagan increased the national debt in percentage terms more than any other president;
- President Bush has increased the national debt in absolute terms more than any other president.

What voters must ask themselves, is whether they believe cutting taxes by borrowing from our children, grandchildren, and further into the future is sound government, or what they really thought they were voting for? Hopefully some facts will help light the way in your analysis of this question.

An excellent treatment in more depth, and with more analysis at "An Analysis of the Presidents Who Are Responsible for the Borrowing."

This is an excellent article on Wikipedia too.